Guest columnist - Rick Pilger, Mortgage Consultant, www.RickPilger.comEverybody wants to know if rates will go up, down or stay the same in '06. And more than ever, they want to know about the housing market. Both numbers depend on economic factors, so we will start there. I know you are tempted, but don't skip ahead.
With a negative savings rate in the US, we are a nation of spenders. That's good for the economy, but it can come back to haunt those who don't have enough put away for retirement.
97% of Americans don't have a college savings plan for their children. If that weren't scary enough, less than a third of workers think they will have enough to retire in a way that sustains their accustomed lifestyle. So what does this tell you? Great opportunities lie ahead for those mortgage professionals who are fiscally literate and can coach their clients. It also tells us that we must be aligned with other financial professionals who can best assist our customers. Clients need and are thirsting for assistance in this area.
Cutting into the budget of the American household is the rising cost of oil. Don't expect it to let up much. Oil should be over $60 to under $80 for most of 2006. Gasoline should ride between $2.50 and $3.00 a gallon. That's quite a bit higher than what we have been used to, but still a lot less than most of the world pays.
Some well-known brokerage firms are calling for $100 per barrel oil prices…but we just don't see that. The good thing about higher prices is that it creates opportunities. People get more creative when the rewards for doing so increase. At $10 - $15 a barrel, there isn't a lot of incentive to find other energy sources or to pull oil from more difficult areas. But as prices rise, other sources become much more viable as potential alternatives.
We will enter the fifth year of the anticipated housing bubble. Yes, for the past four years, the media has beat the drum on a looming housing bubble. But all the media bubble hype has only served to hurt those buyers who were scared off from purchasing a home earlier and now see how much more those homes cost.
So is there a bubble? The simple answer is no. But some areas may cool a bit after a torrid run up, especially in the top tier of their price category.
AND RATES WILL?......Rates will rise a bit due to some inflationary pressure, but not too bad. Keeping rates at good levels will be continued foreign demand and asset reallocation. Our bonds look pretty good to foreigners, who are offered lower returns in their home country. And the Dollar has been stronger and may offer some bonus returns as the greenback makes further gains against most major foreign currencies. In fact, foreign buying accounts for almost half of bond purchases in the US.As our population ages, more assets will be reallocated from riskier stocks that provide growth to safer bonds, which provide preservation. These factors should keep fixed rates between 6% and 7%, with an average of 6.5% for the year.
WHAT ABOUT HOUSING?......NAR is forecasting total existing-home sales, including condos and cooperatives, of 6.86 million units in 2006, down 3.5 percent from the estimated all-time record of 7.11 million in 2005 and the second highest ever. New-home sales will reach 1.24 million, down 4.6 percent from a record 1.30 million in 2005, NAR forecasts.
The easing housing shortage will soften price appreciation as supply and demand move into better balance. NAR is forecasting national median price appreciation of 5.3 percent in 2006, down from 12.4 percent in 2005, so practitioners will need to start reducing sellers’ expectations of what their home can command and how long it will stay on the market.
Signs that eased appreciation might help first-time buyers have yet to emerge, though, in part because of the rise in rates, which hurts affordability. NAR’s affordability index in September stood at about 120, down from an average of about 133 in 2004. An index of 120 means a household earning the national median income earns 120 percent of what it needs to qualify for a mortgage on a house priced at the national median.
The most robust sales activity will be on the lower end of the market in 2006, economists say. Sales have started slowing on million-dollar homes, already a thin part of the market, but homes that list near the local median price will be snapped up. “Anything affordably priced will continue to sell well,” says Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac.
BOTTOM LINE......Our economy has weathered the most destructive storm ever, the tech bust, the terrorist attack, wars abroad, and accounting scandals. Despite all that, the stage is set for healthy market growth, and real estate is a prime beneficiary of that.